The level and scope of issues facing North Sudan President Omar Al-Bashir following the South's secession is likely the most serious he has faced in his over two decades of rule. None of the gains North Sudan expected following his nation's cooperation in South Sudan's independence, including an easing of international sanctions, assistance with its high debt, and removal from the US terror list, have been achieved. Moreover, high inflation, the threat of divisions with the leading National Congress Party (NCP), and ongoing ethnic conflicts in the east, south, and west point to a bleak future. The loss of the oil revenues from secession, which amounted to nearly 36% of the country's previous income, has only worsened matters as the government scrambles to finance itself.
As women are increasingly traveling overseas alone for business and personal travel, security issues have become a pressing concern. Women conduct an estimated 120 million business trips annually and comprise 40 percent of all travelers. According to one web seminar that surveyed 500 female business travelers in 2007, 98 percent said that their personal safety had been compromised in a business trip within the previous 45 days. Every year, hundreds of female executives and business women are robbed, assaulted, kidnapped, and murdered.
In January 2012, a former New York investment banker filed suit against a major international hotel chain, saying she was assaulted in her hotel room after a front desk clerk gave her room key to a drunken man who claimed to be her husband. The woman alleges she was in bed in her room at a luxury hotel in Helsinki, Finland in January 2011, when she awoke to "someone climbing into her bed groping at her," a lawsuit said. The victim fled to the front desk clad in a bathrobe and screamed for help, only to be told by front desk staff "that the man was her husband," the suit said. The intoxicated attacker allegedly obtained the room key to the victim's room after claiming at 4 a.m. to be the woman's husband who had locked himself out. The suit said the attacker was then given a key to the room without any attempt to verify his identity.
One critical factor women should be aware of when traveling overseas is cultural sensitivities. Women should recognize that a foreign culture may find attributes of their native culture offensive. An example of this point is that in some parts of the world shaking hands is considered an insult. At the same time, travelers should be prepared to witness cultures and customs that they themselves might find offensive. Female travelers should be prepared to address these differences, as well as a variety of criminal issues that they may face in varying parts of the world.
In early January 2012, Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan noted that unrest blamed on Boko Haram was worse than the 1960s civil war, believing that sect sympathizers likely existed in the government and security agencies. Inter-religious conflict in the past few months in Nigeria has created great anxiety across the country as the nation is reminded again of the fragile security situation that has existed since its founding. In just the first three weeks of 2012, Boko Haram has killed roughly 80 people in terrorist attacks, adding to the over 500 killed in the sect's attacks in 2011. Thus far, the majority of violence has occurred in the nation's northeast, with some high-level attacks in the center around Abuja and Jos. As the government is seemingly unable to combat the group's operations, and with attacks on the rise in recent months, many are worried about Boko Haram's ability to threaten the southern economy and foreign business interests in the region. While the threat of Boko Haram looms large in terms of the country's long term development, the likelihood of Boko Haram significantly affecting business activity in the south remains limited.
Latin America is emerging as one of the fastest growing tourist destinations in the world, with the United Nations World Tourist Organization noting some 149.8 million tourist arrivals in 2010, up from 93.8 million in 1990. Many of these tourists are young adults, including college students and backpackers, enjoying the adventure, heritage, and diverse environment offered by South, Central, and North America and the Caribbean. Travelers to the region, however, face a number of security risks, regardless of age. Petty crime is commonly reported in Latin American capitals, where thieves and scam artists are known to target foreigners. Violent and organized crime have affected security in several capital cities as well. Additionally, terrorism and civil unrest add to the risks to expatriates in these cities. Alcohol abuse, inadequate travel planning and travel risk management, and a disregard for travel insurance all increase the risks for young adult travelers.
Europe is the world's leading tourist destination, with the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) reporting that over 50% of the world's 940 million tourists in 2010 traveled to the continent. Many of these tourists are young adults, including college students and backpackers, enjoying the heritage and culture of the Old World. Travelers to Europe, however, face a number of security risks, regardless of their age. Petty crime is commonly reported in the region's capitals, where thieves and scam artists target foreigners. Terrorism and civil unrest add to the risks faced by expatriates in Europe's capitals. Alcohol abuse, inadequate travel planning, and a disregard for travel insurance all increase the risks for young adult travelers.
On December 9, 2011, South Sudanese Foreign Minister Nhial Deng Nhial warned that his country was on the "brink of war" with North Sudan following days of fierce fighting along the border, citing in particular North Sudan's invasion of the South Sudanese town of Jaw in Unity state. Khartoum had reportedly used tanks, Antonov bombers, and long-range artillery in the offensive. Deng urged the international community to intervene and said he hoped full-scale hostilities could be avoided.
The full, political secession of South Sudan in July 2011 was supposed to be the final step of a pacification process following over 20 years of a brutal civil war that ravaged the country and people of Sudan. In this first installment of a series on the post-secession situation, the major points of contention that remain between the countries will be investigated in order to understand how the situation has come to the brink of war yet again. After evaluating these issues, a broader look will be taken in later reports at the state of each country internally and the potential for future destabilization.
In October 2011, the Paraguayan Congress approved a state of emergency in San Pedro and Concepcion regions in an effort to crack down on the country's growing insurgency movement. The Ejercito del Pueblo Paraguayo (EPP), or Paraguayan People's Army, is a small Marxist guerrilla movement that has carried out repeated attacks on police, kidnapped wealthy Paraguayans, and purportedly sought aid and training from abroad. Experts believe that EPP is the first communist insurgency to emerge in the region since the end of the Cold War. While the EPP's capabilities are currently limited, if left untamed, this insurgency could emerge as a serious threat to stability in Paraguay.
Based on a simple and brief analysis of per-capita GDP (adjusted for purchasing power parity) compared to Kroll's risk score for every country in the world, a pattern starts to emerge whereby small improvements in economic productivity in high-risk countries are correlated with much larger improvements their risk score. In richer countries, only very large increases in productivity are correlated with much smaller improvements in their risk score. This feature engenders a hopeful outlook for future security trends in the developing world, most notably sub-Saharan Africa.
Foreign travelers and businesses are unlikely to be affected by kidnapping and extortion in Germany, where these crimes are uncommon and the few incidents typically target local residents. As demonstrated in the chart below, the vast majority of kidnapping cases recorded in Germany in 2009 centered on children. These cases included abductions and trafficking, as well as abductions linked to custody or family disputes. Extortion is reported in Germany, with local firms most likely to be affected. The 2009 figures were the latest statistics available on nationwide kidnapping trends in Germany.
Control of Libya's political arena was monopolized by the North African country's dictator President Colonel Muammar al-Qadhafi for over 40 years. Qadhafi seized power in a largely non-violent coup in 1969 after first deposing King Idris I and then Crown Prince al-Sanussi. Over the past four decades, Colonel al-Qadhafi held no official public office or title, but was the de facto leader having appointed himself as the Guide of the First of September Great Revolution. Although Libya was technically a republic, the country had been ruled as a dictatorship until civil unrest and political upheaval forced al-Qadhafi to flee his compound in Tripoli in August 2011. The long serving al-Qadhafi was forced to go into hiding after Tripoli fell into the hands of opposition forces. He retreated with loyalists to his hometown of Sirte where he spent nearly two months on the run before finally being cornered and killed in his hometown in mid-October 2011.